| | |  |   Shamun Mahmud Commercial Capital Limited 10800 Main Street Suite 150 Fairfax, VA. 22030 shamun@betterloansNOW.com (703) 879 - 1779 (800) 460 - 1921 |  | We are one of the few National Financial Institutions that specialize in helping businesses find, qualify for, and, finance a dwelling of their own. We fund loans from $500,000 to $50M. Ask us about our fast-track commercial mortgages! |   | July 28, 2009  Is Employment Still a Lagging Indicator? A basic economic premise is that employment is always a lagging indicator in economic cycles. During previous downturns, companies were slow to lay off workers because of the time and other resources they had invested in these employees. At the end of these downturns, more "permanent" resources such as employees were the last segment of expansion. Of course, these premises were built many years ago when most employees had retirement plans and spent a career with one or two companies. The companies themselves were in business "forever." In today’s market of more frequent turnover of employees and more frequent turnover of companies themselves, we would expect that an old premise such as lagging employment would not be as strong. Yet, as we look at an impending recovery it seems employment is the last indicator to get the message. We have now had three straight months of expansion of the leading economic indicators. Even real estate is starting to stir with increases in housing starts and existing home sales. Yet, we are nowhere near expansion of the workforce. The employment numbers are not as bad as they were but they are nowhere near positive. In the next week we have some very important numbers coming up. The first is a snapshot of second quarter economy and then the employment numbers for July will follow. It will be interesting to see if we continue to witness employment lagging behind other aspects of the economy. Make no mistake about it, employment must rise before we are fully out of this recession.  The Markets. Rates were up slightly in the past week with further increases being felt in the latter part of the week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending July 23, 30-year fixed rates averaged 5.20%, up from 5.14% the week before. The average for 15-year rose slightly to 4.68%. Adjustables were mixed with the average for one-year adjustables barely rising to 4.77% and five-year adjustables decreasing slightly to 4.74%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 6.63%. "Rates were mixed this past week with fixed-rate loans averaging somewhat higher while initial rates on ARMs were flat-to-down slightly," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, during his July 22 Senate testimony, noted that rates are lower than they were last fall, in part because of the Federal Reserve’s actions, and housing affordability right now is the highest its been in many years. Newly released housing indicators contain positive signs that the worst may be behind us. Home prices were down 5.6 percent between May 2008 and May 2009, the smallest 12-month decline since June 2008, based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. New construction of one-family homes jumped 14.4 percent in June to an annualized pace of 470,000 units, the most since October 2008, according to the Commerce Department." Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages Updated July 24, 2009 | Daily Value | Monthly Value | | July 23 | June | | 6-month Treasury Security | 0.29% | 0.31% | | 1-year Treasury Security | 0.49% | 0.51% | | 3-year Treasury Security | 1.62% | 1.76% | | 5-year Treasury Security | 2.60% | 2.71% | | 10-year Treasury Security | 3.72% | 3.72% | | 12-month LIBOR–WSJ | | 1.677% (June) | | 12-month MTA | | 1.051% (June) | | 11th District Cost of Funds | | 1.832% (May) | | Prime Rate | | 3.25% (Dec) |  With home prices low, now could be a good time for parents to give their children a home or even an investment property. Here are some suggestions for managing the tax consequences from Mark Luscombe, tax analyst with Wolters Kluwer: Give a cash gift–Individuals are allowed to gift up to $13,000 per person in a given year without incurring gift tax. That means a couple could give their offspring and spouse $52,000 in a single year to go toward a down payment. Lend money–The government requires that family members meet or exceed minimum loan rates to avoid having the loan be considered a gift. The rates are currently low. One way to handle this is for parents to use the $52,000 gift exclusion to forgive both interest and principal. Use a trust–Set up a qualified personal residence trust, or QPRT. You’ll need an attorney to handle this transaction, but in a nutshell, parents put the home they want to give their children into a trust. At the end of a pre-set term, the home passes to the children with no taxes due. Source: The Wall Street Journal Housing experts predict that multi-family rental properties and apartments will recover fastest from the current downturn, followed by housing in cities that didn’t overbuild. The market is likely to hit bottom in the next few months, says Bernard Markstein, senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of Home Builders. "Next year will see slow but steady improvement, as home builders are controlling their inventory," Markstein says. Apartments and other multi-family residences will snap back quickly once businesses start hiring again, predicts Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. Baby boomers looking for retirement homes and first-time home buyers also will lead the way out of the decline, predicts Bill Singer, a securities attorney and trader who is a member of Forbes.com’s panel of financial gurus. Source: Forbes.com Low prices and high affordability both urge consumers back to the housing market, according to Realtor.com’s national homeownership survey Nearly two-thirds (62.5%) of potential homebuyers surveyed named increased affordability as a motivator for them to purchase a home. Foreclosure bargains in their communities are the motivating factor for 19.6% of potential buyers surveyed. “Value is clearly motivating potential home buyers, and today’s new level of affordability is still an under-appreciated reality that needs to be explored,” said Realtor.com president Errol Samuelson in a release. “The variety and quality of homes currently within reach of the average American family is much greater than most people realize. Making credit available to responsible borrowers and building consumer confidence in the economy are now key factors in restoring vitality to the nation’s housing market.” The survey also showed that low prices aren’t making sellers wary of the market. Only 10% of potential sellers said they were holding off putting their home on the market because of lower prices. In addition, 15.5% of potential buyers said they were motivated to buy soon because they believe prices are as low as they’ll go. A concern over rates increasing was the factor an additional 15.5% of Realtors.com’s respondents said is motivating them to buy, while the federal government’s $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers is the motivation 14.6% of respondents said they need to get into the housing market. Source: Housing Wire |